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\CDETERMINANTS OF THE UTILITY OF LARGE MEMORIES


\J	In my opinion, the limiting factor on the use of memory is
not the size permitted by the physical devices now available but
rather organizational and input and output probems.

1. Organizational - there are already hundreds of computer data
bases but no uniform way of getting information out of them.  My
interest is to devise a way of descibing data that would allow
a person to ask how many chevys hit vws and get an answer extracted
from the Michigan State data base on car accidents without his having
to know the existence of that data base or how it is organized.
The description would contain that information and it would be of
the data base as it now exists, i.e. Michigan State would not have
to reorganize it to make it accessible to the system.

2. Input - Using the new IBM 3850 disk, it would cost about
$80,000,000 to store the entire contents of the Library of
Congress, i.e. about the cost of a building to store all those
books.  It would cost vastly more to read all that information
into a computer.  The basic science required for general font OCR
exists, but economical systems and the incentive to use them
don't exist.

	Besides that almost all new information is now being created
in a \F1non\F0-computer-readable form.  The technology for a complete
switch to computer readable information creation essentially
exists and is already economic.  The Defense Department could
lead in converting its own information production.

	A law might require computer readability for copyright.

	A uniform way of handling reimbursement of copyright
owners of information in computer systems needs to be devised.

3. Output - The demand for solving the other problems either
within the Defense Department or elsewhere depends on the existence
of economical widespread terminal systems and display based
time-sharing.

	\F2In summary, the utility of 10\F315\F2 bit memories or
even the present large memories depends on develpments in other
areas than the physical memories - specifically on the above
areas.\.

						John McCarthy, 7 Nov 1974